What if Players Didn’t Get All the Credit for their Rebounds?

Note: Wins Produced has now been officially adjusted to take diminishing returns for defensive rebounds into account.

The topic of the week seems to be rebounding, and in particular whether or not Wins Produced overrates them. In fact, that seems to be the primary criticism of the metric. Skeptics suggest that a player should not get all the credit for his rebounds for a number of reasons: the defense that caused the missed shot should be accounted for, and the players who played the defense should accordingly get credit; it is usually the case where many players could have got the rebound, but deferred to the player that actually got it; and Wins Produced accounts for diminishing returns in scoring, but does not account for them in rebounding. I’m not saying I buy into any of these points of view; in fact, there have been a lot of compelling points by Dave Berri and Arturo that dispute them (see Here, Here, and Here), and I have trouble giving players credit for something another player actually did. At the same time, I’m intrigued to see what the results would look like if we distributed rebounding numbers in Wins Produced. So here’s what I’ve been doing: I credited each player 20% of his defensive rebounds and 80% of his offensive rebounds, then redistributed the 80% of the defensive rebounds and 20% of offensive rebounds to all teammates by minutes played. Then I recalculated the Adjusted P48 by position and recalculated the WP48 and Wins Produced. Now these numbers aren’t perfect because I have only looked at 12 teams so far. But, I’ll post more numbers when I get them. So here are some of the findings:

The top 5 players according to Wins Produced this season:

Player	WP48	Wins Produced	Adjusted WP48	Adjusted Wins
Love	0.474	25.8	0.284	15.4
Howard	0.382	23.4	0.288	17.6
James	0.356	22.7	0.322	20.5
Paul	0.358	21.4	0.326	19.5
Wade	0.322	18.9	0.247	14.5

As far as I can tell, the top 5 consists of the same players, albeit in a different order, with the exception of Gasol bumping Wade out. Also, it looks like LeBron is the king in this method in terms of total Wins Produced for the season, while CP3 takes the WP48 crown.

Some other players of interest:

Player	WP48	Wins Produced	Adjusted WP48	Adjusted Wins
Bryant	0.200	11.6	0.162	9.4
Rose	0.197	12.4	0.196	12.4
Durant	0.216	13.7	0.189	12.0
Nowitzki	0.195	10.2	0.170	8.9
Gasol	0.258	16.3	0.258	16.3
Humphries	0.344	14.8	0.179	7.7
Camby	0.310	9.9	0.170	5.5
Aldridge	0.123	8.3	0.150	10.0
Milicic	-0.096	-3.4	-0.023	-0.8

General Observations
Almost uniformly the players at the top of each team saw a drop in Wins Produced. Perhaps unexpectedly, below average rebounders did not usually see a rise in their production. Because the position averages were readjusted, players like Kobe Bryant and Derrick Rose did not benefit at all. Instead, the players in middle of each team in terms of Wins Produced were the ones who benefited. However, rather than seeing steep increases in their production, many players from each team increased very slightly.

Is it worth it to take a foreign player in the lottery?

The NBA Draft is coming up, and experts are projecting it to be a big year for drafting foreign players. In fact, 4-5 foreign players are projected to go in the lottery. But, doesn’t it seem like foreigners are usually flops? Think Darko Milicic or Andrea Bargnani. On the other hand, players like Pau Gasol and Dirk Nowitzki, though they are rare, have been perennial stars in the league. Still, it seems like there is more risk in drafting a foreign player than a college player. This observation can be at least somewhat contributed to the difference in foreign style of play and the lack of familiarity of scouts with the foreign leagues compared to American college basketball, which is largely due to the fact that there are a number of different leagues across the world form which NBA teams choose players. So I thought I’d raise the question: is it worth it to take a foreign player in the lottery? The following is a table showing the success of foreign players (who didn’t play at an American college) drafted in the lottery in the last 10 years:

Year	Player	Drafted	Career Minutes	Career Wins Produced	Career WP48
2001	Pau Gasol	3	26258	118.4	0.217
2001	Vladimir Radmanovic	12	15265	1.1	0.003
2002	Yao Ming	1	15815	73.2	0.222
2002	Nikoloz Tskitishvili	5	1945	-6.8	-0.167
2002	Nene Hilario	7	15621	46.1	0.142
2003	Darko Milicic	2	8161	-1.4	-0.008
2003	Mikael Pietrus	11	10645	7.4	0.033
2004	Andris Biedrins	11	9863	47.3	0.230
2005	Fran Vazquez	11	0	0.0	0.000
2005	Yaroslav Korolev	12	169	-0.5	-0.137
2006	Andrea Bargnani	1	11095	-15.0	-0.065
2006	Mouhamed Sene	10	260	-0.1	-0.011
2007	Yi Jianlian	6	5835	-3.5	-0.029
2008	Danilo Gallinari	6	5263	5.5	0.050
Averages			9014	19.4	0.103

Though this is a relatively small sample size, what immediately jumps out is the lack of players around the average mark. While together the data comes out right about average, only two players, Nene and Gallinari, come within .050 of the mark of an average player, which is 0.100. Perhaps more alarming is the number of foreign lottery picks who have actually cost their teams wins over the years. 6 out of the 14 foreign lottery picks in the last 10 years, which is about 43%, have produced in the negative range. But is this out of the ordinary? Consider the averages of all lottery picks from 2001 to 2005. These players have on average produced at a rate of 0.131 Wins Produced per 48 minutes over their collective careers. And only about 16% of those players have produced in the negative range. About half of the lottery picks over the five year period have been above average for their careers, while only one third of the foreign lottery picks have. But is the possibility of the reward worth the risk? About 20% of the foreign players have produced at star level (0.200) over their careers, while 16% of all the lottery picks have hit this mark. So it doesn’t seem like it is worth it to pick a foreign player high without a great deal of confidence in the pick. The probability of drafting a flop is just too high.

It should be noted that these numbers are not entirely conclusive. The sample size of foreign players picked in the lottery is very small. Perhaps more importantly, every player is unique. It might be unfair to lump all foreign players into a category together because each is a different player. Still, the results are interesting. To cap this post off, here are the Win Scores of the foreign players in DraftExpress’s top 100 prospects for the 2011 draft (7.1 is average):

DX Rank	Player	Age	Position	Height	Weight	Team	PAWS40
4	Jonas Valanciunas	19	C	6’11″	240	Lietuvos Rytus	12.6
6	Jan Vesely	21	SF/PF	6’11″	240	KK Partizan Belgrade	8.2
7	Bismack Biyombo	18	PF/C	6’9″	240	Baloncesto Fuenlabrada	8.8
8	Enes Kanter	19	C	6’11″	260	Kentucky	1.4
9	Donatas Motiejunas	20	PF/C	7’0″	215	Benetton Treviso	6.6
18	Nikola Mirotic	20	PF	6’10″	210	Real Madrid	9.5
22	Lucas Nogueria	18	C	7’0″	225	MMT Estudiantes	N/A
28	Davis Bertans	18	SF	6’10″	210	Union Olimpiga Ljubljana	7.2
33	Bojan Bogdanovic	22	SG/SF	6’7″	216	Cibona VIP Zagreb	5.9
51	Jeremy Tyler	19	PF/C	6’11″	260	Tokyo Apache	7.8
59	Michael Dunigan	21	C	6’10″	240	BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn	7.2
62	Xavi Rabaseda	22	SG/SF	6’7″	205	Baloncesto Fuenlabrada	4.2
63	Giorgi Shermadini	22	C	7’1″	248	Union Olimpiga Ljubljana	8.3
67	Jamine Peterson	22	SF/PF	6’6″	230	New Mexico Thunderbirds	7.3
69	Joffrey Lauvergne	19	SF/PF	6’10″	220	ES Chalon-Sur-Saone	6.5
70	Leon Radosevic	21	PF/C	6’10″	210	Cibona VIP Zagreb	6.8
71	Furkan Aldemir	19	PF	6’9″	220	Pinar Karsiyaka	10
79	Milan Macvan	21	PF	6’9″	265	KK Hemofarm	10.8
80	Nihad Djedovic	21	SG/SF	6’6″	195	Lottomatica Roma	7.8
81	Antonie Diot	22	PG	6’4″	188	Le Mans Sarthe Basket	8.2

It looks like whoever takes Enes Kanter, who is projected to go top 5 in a lot of mock drafts, will be very disappointed. Oh, and Ricky Rubio, who it looks like will finally make his debut for the Timberwolves after being drafted a few years ago, posted a Win Score in 2010-11 of about 7.7.

Beware of these numbers because many of these players played in different leagues against different competition.

-James

The Best to Never Win It All and Why I’m Rooting for the Mavs

With Dirk, Kidd, and LeBron all going to the finals, the question begs: who is the best active player to never win an NBA title? Of course, “best” is hard to define. So, why don’t we look at it like this: which active players that haven’t won a title have had the most productive careers; in other words, who has produced the most wins throughout their careers and never won it?

Rank	Player	Career Wins Produced
1	Jason Kidd	291.8
2	Shawn Marion	185.3
3	LeBron James	162.8
4	Steve Nash	160.9
5	Dirk Nowitzki	158.8
6	Marcus Camby	156.5
7	Grant Hill	146.1
8	Dwight Howard	138.9
9	Tracy McGrady	135.0
10	Andre Miller	116.8

So there you have it. Four players in the top five are in the finals. Additionally, it is certain that one of the top three will win a title this year. As a quick note, before anyone complains that Shawn Marion has more wins produced than LeBron, keep in mind these numbers are a total of all these players’ seasons. LeBron is #1 per season.

What about before this year? The media keeps saying that Dirk and the Mavs decided this season that it would be “NBA Title or Bust.” So why don’t we look at the numbers for career wins produced of active NBA players to have never won a title before this season (after all, adding this season’s numbers is pointless since one of the top 3 will have a title for this season):

Rank	Player	Wins Produced Before 2010-11
1	Jason Kidd	278.5
2	Shawn Marion	176.1
3	Dirk Nowitzki	148.6
4	Marcus Camby	146.6
5	Steve Nash	146.2
6	Grant Hill	141.2
7	LeBron James	140.1
8	Tracy McGrady	128.5
9	Dwight Howard	115.5
10	Vince Carter	107.8

Now that makes for a great story. The three players with the most career wins produced and no title…all on the same team. All of them are aging. And they may never have this good of a shot again. So they decide it’s title or bust. Now all they have to do is beat the super team from South Beach. It’s always a shame to see great players not win a title. Some of the best ever – Barkley, Stockton & Malone, and Patrick Ewing – never won the title and consequently, have lost a great deal of respect from the media and fans as a consequence. And this phenomenon is not limited to basketball. In all sports, a player has to win a championship to get the ultimate respect (See Dan Marino). On the other hand, a number of mediocre players who won titles have received more respect than they deserve. It’s tough to watch great players have their legacy tarnished because they never had a good enough team to win a championship. Accordingly, it’s hard not to root for the Mavs in this one, especially since LeBron will have plenty more opportunities with this Heat team.

Just for fun, here is the top 10 of all time to have never won it all:

Rank	Player	Career Wins Produced
1	Charles Barkley	313.6
2	John Stockton	311.1
3	Karl Malone	291.6
4	Jason Kidd	278.5
5	Dikembe Mutombo	208
6	Buck Williams	197.5
7	Shawn Marion	185.3
8	Mark Jackson	174.1
9	Patrick Ewing	172.2
10	Reggie Miller	162.9

2011 Draft Win Score Numbers

The following table shows the position adjusted win scores per 40 minutes (PAWS40) for the top 100 prospects for the 2011 NBA Draft (as ranked by Draft Express). Win Score is a relatively simple player evaluation metric created by Dave Berri. Win Score is calculated by the following equation: PTS + REB + STL + ½*BLK + ½*AST – FGA – ½*FTA – TO – ½*PF. Draft Express reports the raw win scores for every college basketball player. Position Adjusted Win Score is calculated by subtracting the average win score at the particular player’s position, then adding the overall average win score. Dr. Berri has provided numbers for average win scores for college basketball players, but I came up with slightly different numbers. However, while the numbers themselves are different, the position differences are nearly identical relatively. The important number for this table is 7.1, the Win Score of the average player. Thus, all players who have PAWS greater than 7.1 are above average, and all less than 7.1 are below average.

DX Rank	Player	Age	Position	Height	Weight	Team	PAWS40
1	Kyrie Irving	19	PG	6’3″	190	Duke	13.6
2	Derrick Williams	19	PF	6’9″	250	Arizona	12.7
3	Kemba Walker	21	PG	6’1″	185	Uconn	10.6
5	Brandon Knight	19	PG/SG	6’3″	180	Kentucky	6.3
10	Alec Burks	19	SG	6’6″	195	Colorado	10.7
11	Kawhi Leonard	19	SF	6’7″	225	SDSU	13.8
12	Marcus Morris	21	PF	6’9″	230	Kansas	11.6
13	Markieff Morris	21	PF	6’10″	240	Kansas	13.5
14	Tristan Thompson	20	PF	6’9″	230	Texas	8.1
15	Tobias Harris	18	SF/PF	6’8″	225	Tennessee	8.0
16	Jordan Hamilton	20	SF	6’9″	230	Texas	11.0
17	Jimmer Fredette	22	PG	6’2″	195	BYU	9.3
19	Klay Thompson	21	SG/SF	6’7″	205	Washington St.	8.6
20	Chris Singleton	21	SF/PF	6’9″	230	Florida St.	7.8
21	Kenneth Faried	21	PF	6’8″	225	Morehead St.	17.2
23	Reggie Jackson	21	PG	6’3″	208	Boston College	4.7
24	Nolan Smith	22	PG/SG	6’4″	190	Duke	9.4
25	Tyler Honeycutt	20	SF	6’8″	190	UCLA	7.3
26	Travis Leslie	21	SG	6’4″	205	Georgia	9.0
27	Justin Harper	21	PF	6’9″	230	Richmond	9.5
29	Josh Selby	20	SG	6’3″	195	Kansas	3.8
30	Trey Thompkins	20	PF	6’10″	240	Georgia	11.3
31	Jereme Richmond	19	SF	6’7″	210	Illinois	6.0
32	Darius Morris	20	PG/SG	6’5″	190	Michigan	8.5
34	JaJuan Johnson	22	PF	6’10″	220	Purdue	9.6
35	Iman Shumpert	20	PG/SG	6’6″	220	G Tech	10.0
36	Charles Jenkins	22	PG/SG	6’3″	220	Hofstra	11.8
37	Nikola Vucevic	20	PF/C	7’0″	260	USC	10.9
38	Kyle Singler	23	SF/PF	6’9″	225	Duke	5.9
39	Keith Benson	22	PF/C	6’11″	220	Oakland	11.6
40	Jimmy Butler	21	SF/PF	6’8″	220	Marquette	9.9
41	E’Twaun Moore	22	SG	6’4″	191	Purdue	7.8
42	Shelvin Mack	21	PG	6’2″	210	Butler	7.1
43	Malcolm Lee	20	SG	6’5″	200	UCLA	5.6
44	Norris Cole	22	PG	6’2″	175	Cleveland St.	11.4
45	Ben Hansbrough	23	PG/SG	6’3″	203	Notre Dame	10.5
46	Jordan Williams	20	C	6’9″	250	Maryland	11.5
47	Jon Leuer	22	PF	6’11″	225	Wisconsin	10.0
48	David Lighty	22	SG	6’6″	215	Ohio St.	7.3
49	Demetri McCamey	22	PG	6’3″	205	Illinois	8.4
50	Isaiah Thomas	22	PG	5’10″	190	Washington	8.2
52	Marshon Brooks	22	SG	6’5″	195	Providence	9.9
53	Andrew Goudelock	22	PG	6’3″	200	Charleston	8.4
54	Justin Holiday	22	SG/SF	6’6″	185	Washington	8.9
55	DeAndre Liggins	23	SG/SF	6’6″	205	Kentucky	6.8
56	Scotty Hopson	21	SG	6’7″	205	Tennessee	4.3
57	Chandler Parsons	22	SF	6’10″	220	Florida	10.7
58	Malcolm Thomas	22	SF/PF	6’9″	225	SDSU	10.6
60	Greg Smith	20	C	6’9″	250	Fresno St.	9.1
61	Cory Joseph	19	PG/SG	6’3″	185	Texas	7.6
64	Rick Jackson	21	PF/C	6’9″	240	Syracuse	11.7
65	Jamie Skeen	23	PF	6’8″	240	VCU	9.1
66	Gilbert Brown	23	SG/SF	6’6″	200	Pittsburgh	8.0
68	Damian Saunders	22	SF/PF	6’7″	205	Duquesne	10.0
72	Jon Diebler	22	SG	6’6″	200	Ohio St.	9.9
73	Brad Wanamaker	21	PG/SG	6’4″	210	Pittsburgh	8.9
74	Vernon Macklin	24	PF	6’9″	245	Florida	5.8
75	Matthew Bryan-Amaning	23	PF	6’9″	240	Washington	9.5
76	Josh Harrellson	22	C	6’10″	275	Kentucky	11.8
77	Willie Reed*	21	PF	6’9″	220	St. Louis	10.4
78	Gary Flowers	25	PF	6’8″	214	Southern Miss	8.6
82	Jacob Pullen	21	PG/SG	6’0″	200	Kansas St.	7.2
83	Chris Wright	22	SF/PF	6’8″	214	Dayton	6.6
84	LaceDarius Dunn	23	SG	6’4″	190	Baylor	5.7
87	Gary McGhee	22	C	6’11″	250	Pittsburgh	11.7
88	Jerai Grant	22	PF	6’8″	220	Clemson	11.4
89	Lavoy Allen	22	PF	6’9″	225	Temple	8.0
90	D.J. Kennedy	21	SF	6’6″	210	St. John’s	10.2
92	Matt Howard	22	PF	6’8″	225	Butler	9.6
93	Kalin Lucas	21	PG	6’0″	180	Michigan St.	4.7
95	Durrell Summers	22	SG	6’4″	195	Michigan St.	4.0
96	Will Coleman	22	PF/C	6’9″	250	Memphis	6.9
97	Mike Davis	22	PF/C	6’9″	210	Illinois	7.8

A couple of notes on these numbers:
- I didn’t include players who did not play at an American college in this post. I plan on evaluating those players in a future post.
- The numbers are adjusted for team pace.
- The numbers are NOT adjusted for strength of schedule. So be careful when looking at players from mid-major teams because their numbers are probably inflated
- The numbers are not perfect because I am not 100% sure every position is perfect. I did my best to estimate each player’s position.
- The positions listed for each player represent what Draft Express lists the player as, not necessarily what he played in college. For these numbers, I used the position the player played in college.

Here are the top 5 per position (position as in what is listed at Draft Express):

Centers
Player	Age	Height	Weight	College	PAWS40
Josh Harrellson	22	6’10″	275	Kentucky	11.8
Gary McGhee	22	6’11″	250	Pittsburgh	11.7
Keith Benson	22	6’11″	220	Oakland	11.6
Jordan Williams	20	6’9″	250	Maryland	11.5
Nikola Vucevic	20	7’0″	260	USC	10.9
Power Forwards
Kenneth Faried	21	6’8″	225	Morehead St.	17.2
Markieff Morris	21	6’10″	240	Kansas	13.5
Derrick Williams	19	6’9″	250	Arizona	12.7
Rick Jackson	21	6’9″	240	Syracuse	11.7
Marcus Morris	21	6’9″	230	Kansas	11.6
Small Forwards
Kawhi Leonard	19	6’7″	225	SDSU	13.8
Jordan Hamilton	20	6’9″	230	Texas	11.0
Chandler Parsons	22	6’10″	220	Florida	10.7
D.J. Kennedy	21	6’6″	210	St. John’s	10.2
Damian Saunders	22	6’7″	205	Duquesne	10.0
Shooting Guards
Alec Burks	19	6’6″	195	Colorado	10.7
Marshon Brooks	22	6’5″	195	Providence	9.9
Jon Diebler	22	6’6″	200	Ohio St.	9.9
Nolan Smith	22	6’4″	190	Duke	9.4
Travis Leslie	21	6’4″	205	Georgia	9.0
Point Guards
Kyrie Irving	19	6’3″	190	Duke	13.6
Charles Jenkins	22	6’3″	220	Hofstra	11.8
Norris Cole	22	6’2″	175	Cleveland St.	11.4
Kemba Walker	21	6’1″	185	Uconn	10.6
Ben Hansbrough	23	6’3″	203	Notre Dame	10.5

*Willie Reed did not play in the 10-11 season, so his 09-10 numbers are included.

While college production does not necessarily predict NBA production, I think there are quite a few interesting things about these numbers. Some highly touted point guards, especially Brandon Knight, were fairly unproductive in college. There don’t seem to be that many extremely productive players, although Faried really stands out. Of course, he didn’t play in a quality league, but to have numbers that stand out like that would make me very willing to take a chance on him, especially if I’m a late lottery team. Irving looks like the #1 pick, but he only played a handful of games, so the numbers aren’t entirely conclusive. Finally, other than Brandon Knight, all of the American players projected in the lottery look to be very productive.

-James

A Little Bit More on PGs and NBA success.

It has been suggested by a number of observers that point guard usage, not production, is what analysts are actually talking about when they say the NBA is a PG dominated league. Usage percentage (USG%) is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor. The following is a table of starting point guards’ usage sorted by team wins in the 2010-11 season. The player that started the most games at point guard for the particular team is the one used.

Player	Team Wins	USG
Rose	62	31.3
Parker	61	24.9
Chalmers	58	15
Fisher	57	12.8
Kidd	57	15.7
Rondo	56	19.7
Westbrook	55	30.8
Nelson	52	21.9
Billups	50	21.4
Miller	48	21.4
Paul	46	22.2
Conley	46	19.7
Bibby	44	15
Lowry	43	18.9
Felton	42	22.6
Holiday	41	20.6
Nash	40	23
Williams	39	26.2
Collison	37	21.4
Curry	36	23.8
Jennings	35	25.5
Augustin	34	21.2
Davis	32	27
Stuckey	30	24
Harris	24	24.4
Udrih	24	16.9
Wall	23	23.8
Calderon	22	16.8
Williams	19	25.9
Ridnour	17	17.8

A scatterplot might be helpful in visualizing this data:

Although the most used point guard in the NBA, Derrick Rose, was on the team with the most wins this season, USG% was pretty random overall. In fact, the teams with the 3rd, 4th,and 5th best records (Miami, LA, and Dallas) had 3 of the 4 least used starting point guards.

To put it simply, there is not a correlation between USG% of starting point guards and team wins. Or, at least there wasn’t this season.

-James

Is the NBA a Point Guard Dominated League?

Anyone who watched the NBA Draft Lottery last night probably heard it at least 10 times (mostly from Jay Bilas): “It’s a point guard dominated league.” “You can’t have success in the NBA without a great point guard.” Of course, the media would have told you 10, 20, or 30 years ago it was a big man dominated league. But now they’re saying the point guard, not the big man, is the most important position for a team building for the future. How true is this though? Let’s take a look at the production offered by the point guards of the last five champions. (Note: I am using Dr. Dave Berri’s Wins Produced metric to determine production. For more information see the links at the bottom.).

Year	Champion	Starting PG	WP48
2009-10	LA Lakers	Derek Fisher	-0.050
2008-09	LA Lakers	Derek Fisher	0.051
2007-08	Boston	Rajon Rondo	0.219
2006-07	San Antonio	Tony Parker	0.194
2005-06	Miami	Jason Williams	0.104

WP48 is the wins produced by the particular player per 48 minutes he is on the floor. 0.100 is what the average player produces. 0.200 is considered to be “star” level. The most elite players in the NBA usually have a WP48 of greater than 0.300. Only one point guard starting for the championship team in the last five years has produced at the level of a star, Rajon Rondo (though Tony Parker was very close). Jason Williams was roughly average and Derek Fisher has actually been below average in the Lakers’ last two championship seasons. This data suggests that an elite point guard is not necessary in building a champion in the NBA. So is there a position that dominates the league? Let’s take a look at the main big man from the last five champions.

Year	Champion	Starting Big	WP48
2009-10	LA Lakers	Pau Gasol	0.307
2008-09	LA Lakers	Pau Gasol	0.250
2007-08	Boston	Kevin Garnett	0.370
2006-07	San Antonio	Tim Duncan	0.355
2005-06	Miami	Shaquille O’Neal	0.225

Of course, the term “big man” covers two positions, the power forward and the center. Still, I think it’s a fair comparison since these two positions are generally interchangeable, where the point guard is a very unique position. The second table demonstrates the importance of big men in title teams. Every single primary big man produced at “star” levels the year his team won the championship, and every single big man substantially outproduced his point guard counterpart.

So it seems that this league has not actually become a point guard dominated league. In fact, it remains dominated by the bigs. Thus, a general manager looking to build a champion should look at the big guys first. Of course, that is not to say that Cleveland should attempt to take a big with their #1 pick. In fact, there is a lack of quality big men in the draft. Kyrie Irving might be the right choice, but that post is for another day. Also, Derrick Williams, who played center at Arizona, is being evaluated as a small forward by NBA scouts. But is SF the best position for him in the NBA, or will he benefit a team more at power forward? NBA scouts don’t like his size for the PF position. But is the obsession with size (e.g., particular measurements for a particular position) warranted? Again, that will be discussed in another post.

-James

More information on Wins Produced:

http://www.stumblingonwins.com/

http://www.stumblingonwins.com/CalculatingWinsProduced.html

http://dberri.wordpress.com/frequently-asked-questions-and-comments/