2011 NBA Free Agent Guide

For the past week, Andres Alvarez and I have been working on evaluating the 2011 free agent class based on the numbers. You can find these posts here, here, and here. This post is an effort to consolidate the information from those three posts and offer a comprehensive free agent guide for the 2011 offseason. The following table ranks all prospects in terms of estimated value. Value is determined by multiplying the wins a player produces by 1.58 million, which is the total salary of all the players in the league combined divided by the total number of wins by all NBA teams combined in a particular season. This table uses the last three seasons, weighing each season by how recent it was.

 

Dre and I detailed in our posts (with some help from Devin, Mosi, and Alfredo) the players that we felt were most worth pursuing and avoiding at each position. Here’s a recap:

Point Guards to Avoid at all Costs:

• Sebastian Telfair – Telfair has played 7 seasons in the league and has cost his team wins in each of those seasons. Enough said.
  

• Aaron Brooks – Brooks, like Telfair, is very unproductive. He got a lot of love after leading the Rockets in scoring during their 09-10 Ming-less playoff campaign, but even then he was producing at well below average numbers. After all, points per game doesn’t make a player productive. A lot of teams would probably pay a lot for him, but they would be doing themselves a disservice by doing so.

• Honorable Mentions: Also, Law, Quinn, Shakur, and Mills should be avoided at all costs.

Point Guards to Avoid at a High Cost:

• Everyone. There isn’t a free agent point guard who is worth top dollar. That being said, the two that could be very dangerous both appear on the top 5 list (not much competition): Stuckey and Barea. Both have pretty high perceived values, but neither is even above average, much less worth a large salary.

Shooting Guards and Small Forwards Most Worth Pursuing

• Andrei Kirilenko. Perhaps the best overall player in the group, he’s getting older, but he’s not that old. Productive veteran role players are very important in the league, and Kirilenko could be a valuable asset to any team trying to compete for a championship – think Shawn Marion.
• Arron Afflalo. He’s just entered his prime and he’s been improving steadily. He has all the tools to be a good shooting guard, which is important since the 2 is such a weak position in the NBA. Assuming he can be bought at a decent rate, he’s a good choice for any team looking to improve.
• Marcus Thornton. Super young, not even in his prime yet, and already playing above average. His high points per game average last season at Sacramento might make him expensive, but if the price isn’t super high, it’s probably worth it.
• Mike Dunleavy Jr. had a nice comeback season as well, and I don’t think there will be that much demand for him. Even given his injury concerns, I’d sign him to a two or three year deal.
• Reggie Williams is young, productive, and will probably come relatively cheap. The only problem is that he’s a Restricted Free Agent and the Warriors might decide that they want to keep him (after all, who knows what those crazy Warriors will do?).
• J.R. Smith. It’s hard to believe J.R. is only 26. He’s got massive skill and talent and is usually a good player. His bad attitude problems keep his market value lower. I think his time in Denver is done but he’ll definitely help out some team (Chicago perhaps?)
• Tracy McGrady had a good season last year and, after several seasons of injuries, looks to be back.

Shooting Guards and Small Forwards who Should be Avoided

• Jamal Crawford. His high scoring numbers attract naïve general managers, but the truth is he’s never really been productive. Now that he’s getting older, we can expect his production to drop even further below average.
• DeShawn Stevenson. He was a starter on a championship team, and that might increase his market value. However, he’s very unproductive (and has been so throughout his career) so he should be avoided.
• One dimensional three-shooters (Vujacic, Stojakovic, Kapono, Butler, Mason, Cook). While these guys can be enticing, they’re unproductive since they don’t create possessions and they’re defensive liabilities.
• Caron Butler. In his heyday he was a productive player. He’s older and battled through injury and worse still has a decent market value. He’ll be overpriced for whoever picks him up. Think Ron Artest for an example of similar thinking recently.
• Tayshaun Prince. Another player that used to be much more productive but has steadily declined. Many teams will view his championship pedigree and defense and overpay. There’s much cheaper and better options out there.
• Marco Belinelli hasn’t amounted to anything after four years, and I don’t expect him to in the next four either. Avoid him like Andrea Bargnani avoids the boards.
• Michael Redd is done, but some team will offer him a decent sized contract just to confirm this.

Power Forwards and Centers Most Worth Pursuing

• Nene. He’s probably the most efficient scorer in the league and he’s effective in other areas as well. An offensive post presence like Nene isn’t easy to find. He’ll probably go for a pretty high price, but he’s worth it.
• Samuel Dalembert. He doesn’t seem to get a lot of love from the media (probably because he doesn’t score a lot of points), but he’s been very productive his entire career and he’s a great defensive presence. A team will probably be able to sign him for far less than what he is worth, so in terms of bang for your buck, you can’t do much better.
• Kris Humphries. How many people heard of him before this? Well, here at the Wages of Wins network, all of us. That’s because he’s been surprisingly productive. Another great value-for-your-dollar player, he could be a great asset to any team, especially one lacking rebounders.
• Marc Gasol. The last few seasons he’s been an above average center. In the second half of last season he saw a big boost in his production and I think his ceiling is high. In the worst case a team might slightly overpay for a talented seven foot center (which is a rare thing) and in the best case a team may end up with another championship caliber big man. I think Memphis knows that and will likely match any offer.
• Tyson Chandler. Man is he back. When paired with a talented point guard he’s been on contenders. A defensive presence in the middle is super rare in the NBA these days and it’s no wonder adding one to Dallas last year got them over the hump. Getting him will require outspending Cuban, which I doubt will happen, but I can dream right?
• DeAndre Jordan. Very young and extremely athletic for a seven-footer.

Power Forwards and Centers who Should Be Avoided

• Spencer Hawes. I had the pleasure of watching his team crumble numerous times in college to my beloved Cougs, so I knew early that he wasn’t all he was cracked up to be. Nothing has changed since he joined the NBA: Hawes is still very unproductive.
• Glen Davis. Davis is easily the most overrated player in free agency this season, and someone is going to grossly overpay for him. But let me let you in on a secret: he’s going to hurt your team if you get him. As in he will actually cost your team wins. Avoid him!
• Yi Jianlian. I read somewhere the other day that Yi has all the tools to be as good as Andrea Bargnani. I laughed out loud. But then I realized it made sense. Yi has all the tools to be the least productive player in the league.
• Jeff Green. In the best case he’s a bad small forward and in the worst he’s a terrible power forward. Leaving Oklahoma actually improved the team! He’ll be a test to prove if the Boston front office actually knows what they are doing. His scoring will no doubt fool some team in to overpaying him and I will be waiting to mock them.
• David West. At his best he’s been slightly above average. He’s now over thirty and there really is no hope of that changing. Somehow he’s been flagged as a top free agent and that will only make his already inflated value worse. He’s benefiting from Chris Paul being underrated and some team will pay the price.

-James

 

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